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Welcome to Tamil Nadu, the land of Dravidians, the place politics and cinema have been the bread and butter, or to be culturally appropriate, the idli and sambar, of regular life; the place charisma has met charisma on the battlefield for years. Over the previous 5 a long time, simply two events — the DMK and the AIADMK — have shared energy within the State. For the higher a part of 5 a long time, elections have been the contests between former DMK president M. Karunanidhi and two different charismatic leaders: his buddy and darling of the plenty M.G. Ramachandran after which MGR’s protégé Jayalalithaa.
The political context
With the demise of those larger-than-life figures, M.Ok. Stalin, Karunanidhi’s son, has emerged because the torchbearer of Dravidian ideology, coining the time period ‘Dravidian Model’ to outline the progressive path of governance that his authorities is strolling on. At the helm of the DMK, he has gained three elections — the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the 2021 Assembly election — with a thumping majority, preserving collectively an alliance that features the Congress, the Left events, and the VCK.
On the opposite, the AIADMK, which had a formidable vote base, is being led by Edappadi Ok. Palaniswami, who turned the Chief Minister by probability, after the demise of Jayalalithaa. He has consolidated his place within the social gathering, however the query to be requested is whether or not the AIADMK has misplaced floor because it disintegrated into factions after 2016. With Mr. Palaniswami rebuffing the latest makes an attempt at rapprochement with breakaway leaders, the state of affairs stays grim.
Is there a spot for a 3rd power, particularly for somebody from the cinema trade? Tamil celebrity Rajinikanth promised to enter politics for many years — solely to withdraw on the final minute. Actor Kamal Haasan floated Makkal Needhi Maiyam, however has settled for a Rajya Sabha seat, backing the DMK to struggle the “fascist” BJP on the Centre.
Only Vijayakant, known as ‘Black MGR’, was courageous sufficient to enter politics. He floated the DMDK, when each Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa have been alive, and even rose to be the Leader of the Opposition in 2011. His need to be the ‘King’ by forming a Third Front with smaller events, as an alternative of being a ‘Kingmaker’ by aligning with the DMK, nevertheless, had ramifications for his electoral prospects. After his demise, his social gathering is being propelled by his relations. It must be seen the place the social gathering might be positioned within the 2026 election.
PMK founder S. Ramadoss propped up his son Anbumani Ramadoss because the change that Tamil Nadu direly wanted. However, that familial relationship appears to have soured, and the influence of the household fracas on electoral politics stays to be examined.
The right-wingers had pinned their hopes on IPS officer-turned-politician Ok. Annamalai, however have been disillusioned when he was sidelined by the BJP management, a minimum of for now. Then there’s Naam Tamilar Katchi chief Seeman, recognized for his fiery speeches and Tamil nationalism. He has at all times contested the elections alone and has reserved 50% of the full seats contested for girls.
Journey to date
When Mr. Vijay made his political debut in February 2024, simply months forward of the Lok Sabha election, he selected to not contest the overall election that 12 months. His social gathering, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, additionally opted out of the Erode East by-election. After his political plunge, his first main political look was on the social gathering’s maiden State convention held at Vikravandi in Villupuram district in October final 12 months. The convention drew huge crowds, largely his followers.
During the convention, Mr. Vijay declared the BJP his social gathering’s “ideological enemy” and the DMK its “political enemy”. He additionally opened the door for alliances and power-sharing. However, even after one 12 months, his overtures haven’t yielded any constructive consequence by way of alliance.
After the Vikkravandi rally, Mr. Vijay maintained a comparatively low public profile till his social gathering’s first anniversary. His public appearances throughout that interval included a go to to Parandur in Kancheepuram district to oppose land acquisition for the proposed airport undertaking and participation in a guide launch.
The social gathering’s political actions gained momentum solely in 2025 with a deal with organisational growth. Mr. Vijay appointed district secretaries and functionaries for numerous social gathering wings and launched coaching programmes for booth-level brokers to strengthen the grassroots community.
The actor-turned-politician has change into vocal on each State and nationwide points, focusing on the DMK and the BJP. He led a protest in Chennai demanding justice for the custodial loss of life of Ajith Kumar, a temple safety guard on the Bathrakaliamman Temple at Madappuram in Sivaganga district.
The social gathering’s second State convention, held final month at Parapathi on the outskirts of Madurai, once more noticed a big turnout. There, Mr. Vijay declared that the battle was solely between the DMK and the TVK and claimed that his social gathering would script a brand new chapter within the State’s political historical past within the 2026 Assembly election, because the DMK and the AIADMK did within the 1967 and 1977 elections, coming to energy for the primary time.
“You can’t evaluate our chief with anybody besides celebrity Rajinikanth,” stated Ok.G. Arunraj, TVK common secretary (propaganda and coverage). The social gathering, as a complete, believes that Mr. Vijay will trip to energy on an anti-incumbency wave just like the one witnessed in 1996, when Jayalalithaa was ousted from energy on the finish of her first time period. That was when Mr. Rajinikanth misplaced his probability to emerge as a political chief and selected as an alternative to proceed his profession in movies. “On the opposite, our chief is quitting movies on the peak of his profession. So, folks think about him,” Mr. Arunraj stated. The social gathering expects round 25% of the votes in 2026. Mr. Vijay’s marketing campaign over the following six to seven months and his potential to transform his fan base into votes will determine his political profession.
As of now, there’s a consensus amongst political pundits that the TVK will garner greater than 10% of the vote share in 2026. As it was evident from the 2 conferences and Saturday’s marketing campaign in Tiruchi, the youth represent a majority of his potential voters as of now.
M. Udayakumar, an engineering graduate from Tiruchi, doesn’t share the optimism of his spouse and Vijay fan Kavya concerning the TVK’s victory within the 2026 election. “It is uncertain whether or not the massive turnouts will convert into votes. Vijay could win and his social gathering will acquire a number of seats. But it will likely be tough for him to return to energy straightaway. It will take time,” he stated.
“If we are able to strike an alliance, we are going to win. Even in any other case, we are going to. All in our household will vote for him,” stated V. Dhanapal, TVK joint secretary of Thogamalai union in Tiruchi. “Vijay’s charisma and the folks’s craving for a change will guarantee our victory. The ruling social gathering is simply aiding us,” stated R. Edwin of Melapudur in Tiruchi, who turned up on the assembly, alongside along with his spouse Monica and younger daughter, each of whom are avid followers of Mr. Vijay. “Today is my spouse’s birthday, and I can not give her a greater reward than serving to her see Vijay in particular person.”
Several younger followers, like Nithya, too, gathered to see Mr. Vijay. “I simply got here to see him; I don’t know a lot about politics. But I’m positive he’ll win,” she stated. Jayanthi, a middle-aged girl of the town, had additionally come to see Mr. Vijay, together with a number of of her buddies in her locality, although she stated she didn’t know a lot about politics.
Fan following: Despite the scorching warmth, an enormous crowd gathered in Tiruchi to hearken to Mr. Vijay’s speech. | Photo Credit: M. MOORTHY
Women could represent the following massive vote base for the actor. L. Mirunalini, an instructional, is a big fan of Mr. Vijay. She stated she and the ladies in her household would most definitely vote for the TVK. Andal, a home assist, stated they’d historically voted for the ‘two leaves’ image of the AIADMK. However, she didn’t suppose the AIADMK existed any extra. Her daughters voted for Vijayakant. They are all undecided as of now.
One of the explanations for her dilemma could possibly be the DMK’s welfare schemes focusing on girls, regardless of the State-backed liquor gross sales resulting in widespread alcoholism, wreaking havoc on households and hundreds of properties. There are many poor girls in rural areas of districts, like Theni, who suppose that Mr. Vijay is their new saviour.
Another issue that may decide his political profession is the backing of the minority communities. The actor, who indicators as Joseph Vijay, is looking for the backing of Christians. The minority communities stay the spine of the DMK-led alliance and regardless of his proclamations in opposition to the BJP, will these communities again him is the query. The Muslims could not, as latest fatwas urged members of the group to not entertain him as he had frequently portrayed Muslims as villains in his motion pictures.
The mass enchantment
Saturday’s marketing campaign and the 2 previous conferences showcase the actor’s mass enchantment. In Tiruchi, the police gave Mr. Vijay time to launch his marketing campaign from 10.30 a.m. to 11 a.m., however he may attain the venue solely late within the afternoon, and his followers and social gathering staff nonetheless lined up the route, regardless of the scorching warmth.
Commenting on Mr. Vijay’s State-wide tour, R. Kannan, creator of The DMK Years and biographer of Dravidian stalwarts C.N. Annadurai and M.G. Ramachandran, stated, “It is delayed. Better late than by no means. We want to attend and watch. Until now, Mr. Vijay was largely holding occasions in closed halls, apart from the 2 State conferences. For the primary time, he’s assembly the general public via a State-wide outreach. We ought to observe the sort of response he receives from the folks.”
Mr. Kannan stated that in his tour, Mr. Vijay ought to deal with each State and native points extra clearly and deeply. “Until now, his themes have been selective, and his speeches have been transient. He ought to deal with 5 – 6 main State points, whereas highlighting vital native points within the areas he visits to achieve traction and join with the folks.”
As for the DMK, Mr. Vijay is simply one other one that has been sponsored by the BJP to oppose the DMK within the election. DMK leaders consider he’ll disappear after the election. “He gained’t eat an excessive amount of into the DMK’s vote share, although he could trigger some erosion. On the opposite hand, the AIADMK will endure considerably, as Mr. Vijay will divert the anti-incumbency sentiment that may in any other case profit the AIADMK,” says a senior chief. DMK leaders really feel that Mr. Vijay lacks readability on many of the points he addresses in his speeches. “He says he’ll retrieve Katchatheevu. Does he consider that it’s going to supply a everlasting answer to the assaults on Tamil fishermen? What is his stance on honour killings,” asks a senior DMK chief.
There is little doubt concerning the mass enchantment of the actor. But there have been a number of cases throughout the nation through which the crowds haven’t transformed into votes, essentially the most notable being that of late actor Sivaji Ganesan. Unlike MGR who was with the DMK which he break up when he began out on his personal and Jayalalithaa who had an enormous social gathering to again her, Mr. Vijay is ranging from scratch. His benefit is that he’s fashionable and simply recognisable. In a bipolar political panorama, what number of will vote for him? The reply may outline Tamil Nadu’s politics for a while to return.
