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Turkish Defence Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday (September 11, 2025) that Israel would “additional develop its reckless assaults, because it did in Qatar, and drag the whole area, together with its personal nation, into catastrophe.”
Israel and Turkiye had been as soon as robust regional companions, however ties between the international locations bumped into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the conflict in Gaza sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault in southern Israel.
Tensions even have risen as the 2 international locations have competed for affect in neighbouring Syria for the reason that fall of Bashar Assad’s authorities final 12 months.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian trigger and of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The Turkish President has criticised Israel, and notably Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric for the reason that begin of the Gaza conflict, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi chief Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officers often go to Turkiye and a few have taken up residence there. Israel beforehand accused Turkiye of permitting Hamas to plan assaults from its territory, in addition to finishing up recruitment and fundraising.
Mr. Erdogan is near Qatar’s leaders and Turkiye maintains robust navy and business ties to the emirate. He is because of journey to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit.
After Israel’s assaults on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is sure to be involved by Israel’s means to freely use the airspace of neighbouring states.
“Israel’s means to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, typically bypassing regional air defences and worldwide norms, units a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” mentioned Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Trends Research and Advisory’s Turkiye programme.
Turkiye sees these assaults as a “broader Israeli technique to ascertain a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states round it,” he added.
Turkiye has superior navy may
In crossing a beforehand unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a detailed American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel additionally has raised the query of how far it’ll go in pursuing Hamas targets.
Through its NATO membership, Turkiye would appear to have a larger diploma of safety in opposition to Israeli assault than that afforded to Qatar by its shut ties to the United States.
Turkiye additionally boasts considerably larger navy may than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in measurement solely to the US amongst NATO international locations and a complicated defence trade.
As tensions rise, Turkiye has boosted its defences. During Israel’s assaults on Iran’s nuclear amenities in June, Erdogan introduced a rise in missile manufacturing. Last month he formally inaugurated Turkiye’s “Steel Dome” built-in air defence system, whereas initiatives such because the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, mentioned an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member could be “extraordinarily unlikely,” however small-scale bomb or gun assaults on potential Hamas targets in Turkiye by Israeli brokers might be a definite chance.
Cubukcuoglu, in the meantime, mentioned the Qatar assault may harden Ankara’s help for Hamas.
“This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel might ultimately prolong such operations to Turkish territory,” he mentioned. “The Turkish authorities calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional affect, whereas standing agency bolsters its function as a defender of Palestinian causes in opposition to Israeli aggression.”
Tensions may play out in Syria
While consideration is targeted on tensions surrounding the conflict in Gaza and Turkiye’s relations with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned the larger hazard could also be in Syria, the place he described Israel and Turkiye as being “on a collision course.”
“To assume that focusing on Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria could be to go too far is wishful considering,” he mentioned.
Since Syrian rebels unseated Assad in December, rising tensions between Turkiye and Israel have performed on the market. Ankara has supported the brand new interim authorities and sought to develop its affect, together with within the navy sphere.
Israel views the brand new authorities with suspicion. It has seized a UN-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria, launched a whole bunch of airstrikes on Syrian navy amenities and positioned itself because the protector of the Druze spiritual minority in opposition to the primarily Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus.
Tensions additionally may spill into the broader japanese Mediterranean, with Israel probably drawing nearer to Greece and Greek Cypriots to problem Turkey’s navy presence in northern Cyprus.
Turkiye mixes deterrence and diplomacy
Turkiye seems to be pursuing a combination of navy deterrence and diplomacy in Syria geared toward defusing tensions to keep away from a direct battle with Israel.
Turkish and Israeli officers held talks in April to ascertain a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria. The transfer adopted Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Turkey had been purportedly planning to make use of. Netanyahu mentioned on the time that Turkish bases in Syria could be a “hazard to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus final month signed an settlement on Turkiye offering navy coaching and recommendation to Syria’s armed forces.
Mr. Erdogan additionally might hope Washington would take a tough line in opposition to any Israeli navy incursions.
While Mr. Netanyahu has sought help from US President Donald Trump within the faceoff with Turkiye, Trump as an alternative lavished reward on Erdogan for “taking on Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “affordable” in his dealings with Turkiye.
But because the strike in Qatar confirmed, having robust relations with Washington will not be essentially a safeguard in opposition to Israel.
The Qatar assault confirmed there was “no restrict to what the Israeli authorities can do,” Unluhisarcikli mentioned.
