Retail inflation declines to multi-year low of 0.25% in October

Retail inflation fell to a historic low of 0.25% in October 2025, with the federal government attributing this fall to the primary full month’s influence of GST fee cuts, a beneficial base impact, and to drop in inflation of a number of meals objects comparable to greens and fruits. 

According to the federal government, that is the bottom fee of inflation measured within the present sequence of the Consumer Price Index. That is, it’s the lowest fee of inflation since January 2012. 

The information reveals the autumn in total inflation is essentially because of the statistical influence of the bottom impact on meals inflation. Most of the opposite classes within the CPI noticed inflation larger in October 2025 than in the identical month final yr.

“The decline in headline inflation and meals inflation in the course of the month of October 2025 is principally attributed to the complete month’s influence of decline in Goods and Service Tax [rates], beneficial base impact and to drop in inflation of oils and fat, greens, fruits, egg, footwear, cereals and merchandise, transport and communication, and many others,” the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation stated in its launch.

The information reveals that the meals and drinks class noticed costs contract 3.7% in October 2025, following up on a contraction of 1.4% in September. In reality, meals and beverage costs have contracted in 4 out of the seven months of this monetary yr to date. 

According to economists, this decline is nonetheless resulting from a statistical base impact slightly than an precise fall in costs. That is, as a result of meals inflation in the identical month of final yr was 9.7%, the change in costs this October seems to be comparatively higher.

“Food inflation has come down primarily resulting from base results,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist on the Bank of Baroda stated. “In their absence, it might have been larger. Prices of greens particularly have elevated out there place.”

The information reveals that this base impact in meals inflation was the driving issue behind the autumn in total inflation. 

For instance, inflation within the gasoline and light-weight class stood at 2% in October 2025, in comparison with a contraction of 1.7% in October of the earlier yr. 

Inflation within the housing class, too, accelerated to three% in October 2025 from 2.8% in October 2024. 

The clothes and footwear class was one of many few aside from meals that noticed inflation easing in October, to 1.7% from 2.7% in October final yr, seemingly on account of the GST fee cuts. 

The pan, tobacco, and different intoxicants class noticed inflation quicken to 2.9% in October 2025 from 2.5% in the identical month final yr. The miscellaneous class, which captures all different objects not included within the main sub-groups, noticed inflation speed up to five.7% in October 2025 versus 4.3% in October final yr.