Air passengers in India more likely to decline post-Air India airplane crash: Report

Jun 20, 2025 05:04 PM IST As per knowledge reported by MoCA, common day by day worldwide passengers have declined from 118 okay in April to 102 okay in June. Post restoration of Air passengers in May 2025 after the cessation of India-Pak hostilities, a report by ICICI Securities says the aviation ministry passenger journey knowledge quantity signifies additional decline in June. “As per daily data reported by MoCA, average daily passengers had seen a decline in May’25 following the geopolitical conflict. The average daily passengers in April this year was at 490K, however, a decline was witnessed in May due to India-Pakistan conflict.(Representational Image) However, post-declaration of ceasefire, domestic air travel had returned to normalcy. Average daily passengers again declined post the unfortunate Air India accident on 12 Jun’25,” the ICICI Securities report famous. According to the report the typical day by day passengers in April this yr was at 490K, nevertheless, a decline was witnessed in May 2025 as a consequence of India-Pakistan geopolitical battle. However, Average day by day pax returned to 490l earlier than 12 Jun’25 (earlier than Air India incident), publish which it has declined to 460k once more. On the worldwide journey aspect, worldwide air journey has skilled a setback since May 2025, weighed down by geopolitical points just like the India-Pakistan battle. Recently, Air India has decreased its worldwide providers on wide-body plane by 15 per cent for the following few weeks.  The choice comes after the tragic lack of 241 lives on board Air India-171 flight, which crashed in Ahmedabad. “Air India cancelled 83 wide-body operations between 12 and 17 Jun’25. As per daily data reported by MoCA, average daily international passengers have declined from 118k in Apr’25 to 113k in May’25 and 102k in Jun’25,” provides the report.  However, ICICI securities believes that the weak point in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) value might offset the weak point seen in passenger demand in May/Jun’25.ATF costs have skilled weak point as common ATF costs declined 8.2 per cent in Q1FY26 to ₹86k/KL vs. ₹94k/KL in Q4FY25.  But now, due to the latest geopolitical disaster, crude oil costs are going up, which might change the dynamics for the airline sector. “On the backdrop of the current geopolitical scenario, crude oil prices have increased approx. 20 per cent since the start of Jun’25 to USD 77/bbl., as on19 Jun’25. This surge in prices may pose a threat to earnings in the seasonally weak Q2 ahead,” the report mentioned. 

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