Analysis of Bihar SIR electoral rolls hints at increased voter deletions in Muslim-majority districts

On August 1, the draft electoral rolls for #Bihar, following the completion of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) train, had been launched. A complete of seven.24 crore electors are a part of the newest electoral rolls — over 56 lakh electors fewer than the rolls ready in January this yr. According to the #Election Commission of India, the voters who aren’t a part of the August listing have died, or are registered in two areas, or have completely migrated out of #Bihar, or are untraceable.

A district-wise evaluation of the August electoral rolls exhibits that there was a bent of a better variety of deletions from the rolls in districts with bigger Muslim populations (2011 Census). 

The chart beneath plots the distinction within the variety of electors within the August rolls in comparison with the January rolls, on the horizontal axis. On the vertical axis, we have now plotted the districts’ Muslim inhabitants share.

In essence, we have now plotted Muslim inhabitants towards deletion within the SIR.The chart exhibits a average optimistic correlation (Pearson correlation r ≈ 0.43), indicating that districts with the next Muslim inhabitants typically noticed extra deletions. But confirming whether or not #Muslims had been disproportionately deleted within the revised rolls requires a extra granular evaluation.

On the opposite hand, there’s adverse correlation (r ≈ -0.46) within the change in electors in comparison with the share of Scheduled Caste (SC) inhabitants, district-wise. That is, districts with the next SC inhabitants are inclined to have decrease variety of deletions. However, the sooner observe of warning applies to this case as properly. The chart beneath plots the distinction within the numbers of electors on the horizontal axis and the district’s share of SC inhabitants.

A district-wise evaluation of the August electoral rolls additionally exhibits that, on the whole, the upper the doable variety of out-migrants from a district, the extra the variety of deletions from the roll. This confirms one of many ECI’s causes for the deletions — out-migration.

We used feminine turnout relative to the voters within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as a proxy to measure district-wise out-migration in #Bihar. We did this as a result of, in 2024, #Bihar stood out among the many States that had the next female-to-male voters ratio, regardless of having a decrease female-to-male voters ratio. The chart exhibits the ratio of male to feminine electors towards the ratio of female-to-male voters (turnout).

This implies that in #Bihar, extra ladies than males turned out to vote in absolute numbers although there have been extra registered male electors. While there is perhaps different elements explaining this gendered variation, the distinction means that fewer males had been out there to vote regardless of being registered. Historically, #Bihar is likely one of the largest sources of out-migration, which may clarify the decrease male turnout.

The chart beneath plots the district-wise ‘out-migration index’ on the vertical axis. This compares ladies’s share amongst all voters (male plus feminine) to their share amongst all electors within the 2020 polls. A optimistic worth signifies extra ladies voters turned out to vote compared to males regardless of increased male elector registration numbers. This is what we use as a proxy for increased out-migration. The chart additionally plots the distinction within the variety of electors on the horizontal axis. In essence, we plot out-migration towards deletion within the SIR.

Note: Out-migration index for this chart was calculated utilizing knowledge from 2020 polls as gender-wise voting in Assembly seats was not out there in 2024

The pattern line exhibits that there’s a average optimistic correlation (r ≈ 0.40). This implies that in districts with increased out-migration, there appears to be extra deletion of electors. However, this doesn’t imply that deletions occurred precisely alongside gender traces, to take away doable male migrants from the rolls. In a subsequent Data Point, we are going to study the deletions additional in gentle of those findings.

Source: #Election Commission of India, 2011 Census

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