Imports from Russia slid from over 2 million barrels per day in June to 1.6 million bpd in September.
However, tanker-tracking knowledge for early October counsel a rebound: shipments of Urals and different Russian grades to India have picked up tempo, supported by renewed reductions amid slack demand in Western markets and delivery flexibility.
Preliminary knowledge by international commerce analytics agency Kpler confirmed October imports monitoring round 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a rise of round 250,000 bpd from the earlier month (although the present month knowledge is topic to revision).
The knowledge pertains to the interval previous to U.S. President Donald Trump’s October 15 assertion claiming Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to cease Russian crude imports. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, nonetheless, mentioned he was not conscious of such a telephone dialog.
‘Pressure techniques’
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, believes Mr. Trump’s assertion was extra doubtless strain techniques linked to commerce negotiations quite than a mirrored image of an imminent coverage change.
“Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons,” he mentioned.
Indian refiners, too, mentioned they haven’t but been requested by the federal government to cease Russian oil imports.
India turned to buying Russian oil bought at a reduction after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its provides over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Consequently, from a mere 1.7% share in complete oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20), Russia’s share elevated to 40% in 2023-24, making it the most important oil provider to India.
In the primary half of October, Russia continued to take pleasure in that standing. Iraq was the second greatest crude oil provider to India at round 1.01 million bpd, adopted by Saudi Arabia at 8,30,000 bpd. The U.S. has overtaken the UAE to turn into India’s fourth-largest provider with 647,000 bpd. UAE provided 394,000 bpd, in keeping with Kpler.
Vital for India
Mr. Ritolia mentioned Russian crude stays structurally important for India, accounting for roughly 34% of its complete imports and providing compelling reductions which can be too vital for refiners to disregard.
“There has been a lot of talk about the dip in imports during July-September. This was driven less by tariff concerns and more by seasonal factors, particularly increased maintenance activity at PSU refineries such as MRPL, CPCL, and BORL,” he mentioned.
In reality, most contracts for deliveries as much as early September had been finalised 6–10 weeks upfront, that means offers had been largely locked in earlier than July 31. So dips in July-September had been largely because of refinery processing much less crude in view of upkeep schedules.
Even with narrower reductions than in 2023, Russian barrels stay probably the most economical feedstock choices out there to Indian refiners, because of landed reductions and excessive GPW (Gross Product Worth) margin outputs from grades equivalent to Urals.
Discounts common between $3.5-5 per barrel, up from $1.5-2 in July/August.
Replacing Russian crude just isn’t troublesome, as extra barrels might circulate from the Middle East, Latin America, and the U.S., just like India’s pre-2022 crude slate.
Indian refineries can deal with various crude grades, so the technical constraint is minimal.
But whether or not New Delhi is able to make that shift is one other matter, he mentioned. “The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky.”
Substitution would require speedy scaling from a number of suppliers, at greater prices (freight, weaker reductions). If margins compress or retail costs rise, the consequence may very well be inflation, political backlash, and weaker refinery profitability.
He believes refiners will not depart a greenback on the desk except directed by the federal government – simply as occurred with Iranian barrels. While there was a stronger push for diversification, contracts for Russian crudes are sometimes signed 6–10 weeks earlier than arrival. Rewiring all that takes time. In observe, Indian refiners are regularly broadening their baskets, to not substitute Russia within the brief time period, however to boost power safety, continuity, and suppleness.
India has constantly pursued an unbiased overseas and power coverage, balancing financial pursuits with diplomatic relationships. A sudden shift away from Russian crude would undermine its power safety technique and is unlikely except formal sanctions — just like these on Iran or Venezuela — are imposed.
“At this stage, it’s improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy US and EU political pressure. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could make a token reduction – on the order of 100,000-200,000 bpd – to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative,” he added.
Importing greater volumes from the U.S. to placate Trump is an choice, however the upside is capped at round 400,000-500,000 bpd. This is as a result of U.S. grades face each logistical disadvantages, financial and compatibility challenges with Indian refining techniques.
Kpler knowledge reveals Indian imports of U.S. crude have averaged 310,000 bpd to date in 2025, a rise from 199,000 bpd in 2024, hitting a yearly excessive of approx 500,000 bpd (anticipated in October).
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