Nobel Institute suspects leak earlier than Machados win, extremely possible an espionage

A possible leak that preceded the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan Opposition chief Maria Corina Machado was “highly likely” the results of espionage, the Nobel Institute instructed Norwegian media on Saturday (October 11, 2025).

The odds of Ms. Machado successful the prize jumped from 3.75% to almost 73% in a single day from Thursday (October 9, 2025) to Friday (October 10, 2025) on the predictive betting platform Polymarket. But no professional or media outlet had talked about her as being among the many favourites for the prize, which was introduced just some hours later in Oslo.

“Highly likely it’s espionage,” the director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, instructed Norway’s TV2 tv.

On Friday (October 10), the pinnacle of the Nobel committee stated he did not imagine Ms. Machado’s identify had been leaked. “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can’t imagine that’s the case,” Committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes instructed the NTB information agency.

Mr. Harpviken stated the institute would nonetheless examine and “where necessary, we will further tighten security”. Espionage “could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely,” he stated.

“It’s too certain to say for sure, but it’s no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage,” he stated. “It is obvious that the institution is of interest to actors who want to acquire information, both states and other organisations.” He added, “The motives can be both political and economic. This has been going on for many decades.”

Mr. Harpviken didn’t reply to AFP’s requests for remark.

An extraordinarily restricted variety of folks know prematurely the identify of the laureate chosen by the 5 members of the Nobel Committee. In the previous, surprising names of Nobel nominees have emerged within the Norwegian media, fuelling hypothesis about doable leaks. But this has not been the case lately.

Ms. Machado, an Opposition chief barred from working in Venezuela’s 2024 presidential elections, was awarded “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy”, the Committee stated.

The Nobel Peace Prize has lengthy been coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump, whose workplace known as the Committee’s determination to award it to Ms. Machado as a substitute of him an indication of “politics over peace”.