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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had projected Q2 GDP progress price at 7%.
“Growth is being supported by a decide up in funding actions, restoration in rural consumption, and buoyancy in companies and manufacturing, underpinned by structural reforms like GST rationalization that additionally helped unleash a festive spirit that decisively showcased triumph of hope over hype,” mentioned SBI Research in a report.
“In continuum of the great numbers from festive led gross sales, proportion of main indicators in consumption and demand throughout agriculture, trade, service sectors displaying acceleration has elevated to 83% in Q2 from 70% in Q1. Based on the estimated mannequin, we get hold of a nowcast of actual GDP progress of seven.5% in Q2FY26 with risk of an upside shock,” it mentioned.
“However, dangers persist from unstable world commodity markets and potential spillovers from commerce disruptions. Overall, India’s near-term outlook is powerful, with macroeconomic stability offering house for sustained medium-term progress,” it identified.
As per evaluation by SBI Research the gross home GST collections may come round ₹1.49 lakh crore for November 2025 (returns of October 2025 however filed in November 2025), a YoY progress of 6.8%.
Coupled with ₹51,000 crore of IGST and cess on Import, the November GST collections thus might cross ₹2 lakh crore, pushed by the height festive season demand led by decrease GST price and elevated compliance whereas most of states expertise optimistic features, it mentioned.
Stating that over the last month festive season (September-October2025), consumption has bought an enormous increase with GST rationalization, first indication coming from evaluation of Credit and Debit card spending patterns throughout the latitude, it mentioned in bank cards, service provider classes like Auto, Grocery shops, Electronics, Furnishing and Travel indicated an enormous progress.
In e-commerce channel 38% spends have been seen on Utility & Services, adopted by 17% on Supermarkets and Grocery and Travel Agents held 9% share, it added.
Also, metropolis clever bank card spends revealed that demand had elevated throughout areas however rising in mid-tier cities probably the most as E-com gross sales had largely been optimistic throughout cities.
“With GST rationalization, Debit card spends too reveals progress throughout all main states in Sep/Oct25 over Sep/Oct24.
However, for Debit playing cards, inside E- Commerce spending, Metro has proven highest progress (8%) adopted by Urban areas (7%) in September/October 2025 in comparison with September/October 2024,” it mentioned.
“Decoding consumption elasticities for main sectors based mostly on the change in weighted efficient GST price publish GST rationalization reveals all sectors besides textile are extremely elastic delineating sturdy response of consumption resulting from GST rationalization,” it mentioned.
“The discount of efficient GST price ought to spurt financial savings for the shoppers. Juxtaposing GST charges with Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) [Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES: 2023-24] reveals that on a mean, a shopper might save 7% per thirty days on their consumptions based mostly on preliminary estimates and will rise additional with availability of extra knowledge,” it added.
On knowledge regarding car gross sales it mentioned all areas exhibited double-digit progress in automotive gross sales quantity (19%), whereas most progress got here from Rural areas, adopted by Urban area with 39% of automobiles bought within the worth vary of above ₹10 lakh.
Urban and Metro facilities additionally exhibited rising premiumization as larger finish variants/fashions/manufacturers (₹20 lakh) discovered accelerated progress throughout value-volume matrix, it mentioned.
Published – November 18, 2025 10:26 am IST
