He attributed the expansion slowdown in FY25, which noticed a deceleration to six.5 per cent from FY24’s 9.2 per cent, to tight credit score circumstances and liquidity points. The proper agriculture insurance policies can add 25 per cent to actual GDP progress, Mr. Nageswaran added.
On the U.S. tariffs, the CEA mentioned it’s the second and third order impacts, which is able to movement as soon as sectors like gems and jewelry, shrimps and textiles have taken the primary order brunt, that might be “more difficult” to sort out.
The authorities is conscious of the scenario and conversations with the impacted sectors have already begun, Mr. Nageswaran mentioned, including that one will hear from the policymakers within the coming days and weeks however individuals need to be affected person.
With hypothesis on whether or not U.S. officers will go to India for commerce talks later this month as reported, Mr. Nageswaran mentioned the upcoming meet in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladmir Putin is more likely to affect the result.
Declining to spell out any particulars on the commerce negotiations between India and the U.S., the academic-turned-advisor mentioned issues are very fluid on the world stage proper now with relations swinging from cooperation to stalemate, and spelled out his expectation of the impression of fifty per cent US tariff on Indian exports.
“I do believe that the current situation will ease out in a quarter or two. I don’t think that from a long-term picture, the India impact will be that significant but in the short run, there will be some impact,” he mentioned.
He mentioned nobody can guess the precise the reason why President Donald Trump selected to slap the excessive tariffs on India, questioning if it is the fallout of Operation Sindoor or one thing much more strategic.
However, the CEA mentioned the concentrate on tariff-related points mustn’t blind us to extra “important challenges”, together with the impression of synthetic intelligence, reliance on one nation for vital minerals, and their processing and strengthening of provide chains.
Mr. Nageswaran exhorted the non-public sector to do extra “as we navigate these longer-term challenges, promising that public policy will play the facilitator’s role”.
“Private sector also has a lot of thinking to do, given the massive strategic challenges we face in the coming years… the private sector also has to think about the long-term rather than the next quarter, which is what might have led to many of the challenges we are currently beginning to face,” he mentioned within the feedback aimed toward India Inc.
He, nevertheless, didn’t elaborate on the topic any additional.
Stating that the federal government has allotted cash in the direction of the analysis functions, he mentioned it’s now for the non-public sector to up their investments within the space.
The Indian youth is watching each bodily and well being well being points arising from extra display use, consumption of extremely processed meals, and so on, which is resulting in anxieties and even suicidal ideas amongst individuals, the CEA mentioned, in search of the non-public sector’s assist to sort out the problem.
He welcomed the capital expenditure put in by the non-public sector in FY26 and information to be launched in February subsequent yr will attest to the identical.
The consumption story is “quite healthy”, the CEA mentioned, pointing to the information on UPI utilization. Specifically on city consumption, he rued that there isn’t any correct information supply to seize companies consumption, and added that drawing from listed corporations’ earnings may additionally not be the correct measure as consumption is shifting to the unlisted area.
The general useful resource mobilisation within the economic system shouldn’t be displaying any slackening, the CEA mentioned, asking all to have a look at banks credit score progress, business paper issuances, and IPO fundraising collectively.
On China
On China, Mr. Nageswaran mentioned “we also need to understand the security dimension and look at the $100 billion trade deficit beyond just the number”. As an answer, there’s a must diversify the sources of imports and the CEA careworn that the non-public sector may have a job to play there.
Without naming China, he mentioned just one nation provides vital minerals, that are important for semiconductors, synthetic intelligence tech, and added that the availability is “critically unstable”.
“We cannot go from crude oil import dependence to critical minerals and ladders import dependence. Understand that crude oil (sources) at least is more diversified,” he mentioned.
“Indian policy makers must choose between accepting permanent strategic dependence on adversaries or committing the resources necessary for genuine support to independence,” Nageswaran mentioned.
Stating that AI will trigger labour displacement, Nageswaran pitched for warning in AI adoption and added that “we will have to choose the areas in which we allow AI to be deployed and harnessed, and also the speed with which we do so”.
There is a must create no less than 80 lakh new jobs every year within the subsequent 10-12 years, he added.
